Littoral Morpho-Dynamic Evolution: The Case of Al-Hoceima (Mediterranean Sea, North Morocco)

Climate change will majorly influence our lives in the next few decades through its impact on the severity of coastal erosion and marine submersion, which are associated with an increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events. This study employs three complementary approaches: the interpretation of vertical satellite imagery, seasonal measurements of beach width in the field, and a sedimentological study. The main objectives are to evaluate the risk of erosion on the Moroccan Mediterranean coastline, particularly the impact of climate change, in order to prevent disasters, minimize risks, and manage the consequences. The study reveals that approximately 54% of beaches in Al-Hoceima have experienced erosion, while around 14% have remained relatively stable. The erosion speed at Sfiha Beach in the western zone varies between 2.68 m/year and 2.25 m/year, while in the eastern part, the evolution is relatively low at around 1.34 m/year. The high erosion rates recorded on some transects pose significant problems, accompanied by reduced beach width, particularly during winter. Additionally, a study estimating the areas likely lost by submersion allows for identifying flood zones based on different seawater rise scenarios. Approximately 47% of the entire coastline of Al-Hoceima presents a risk of submersion with a maximum flood level of 10m, compared to 64% in Tangier, for example. These impacts affect populations, socio-economic activities, land use, and transitional waters, particularly along the coastline. The study highlights significant implications for coastal management, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to mitigate climate change's impacts on coastlines. Practical strategies like beach nourishment, dune restoration, and coastal defenses can prevent erosion and protect vulnerable areas. Land use planning and resilient infrastructure development are crucial for sustainable management.