Modeling of the Key Threats and Identification of the Prospects for Social Security Support in the Sphere of Employment and Labor Payment in Ukraine

Following the study, the conceptual basis for a mechanism for assessing the main threats to social security in Ukraine's employment and labour wage sectors and the prospects for their neutralization was developed. In the framework of the factorial model of the main threats to social security in the Ukrainian labour market, we studied the dynamics of the parameters of employment and wages and investigated the impact of each threat on the coefficients of the labour supply–demand ratio. In the process of analyzing threats to employment and wage security, it assessed the impact of parameters such as informal employment, youth unemployment, average monthly wages, real wage index, wage arrears rate and wage fund. The distribution of the general factors affecting social security in the labour market demonstrates the instability of the dynamics of changes in the indicators analysed between 2006 and 2018, as well as the significant negative severity of the escalation of the crisis phenomenon between 2008–2009 and 2014–2015, which, due to their low control and spontaneity, reflect the high level of indicators for employment and salaries since 2019, without including the assessment of labour market parameters in the context of the worsening risks to social security during the Pandemic (2020–2021) and the war in Ukraine (2022), which was deliberately not taken into account in the modelling process.