Development and Increasing the Value Added Scenarios for the Woodworking Industry of Ukraine in the Context of the Circular Economy

The woodworking industry becomes the basis for starting a circular economy due to the universality of the use of wood and the ability to be completely absorbed by nature without polluting it when used rationally. To form woodworking industry development scenarios for Ukraine, the contribution of individual types of products to the formation of the gross value added of the industry in 35 countries was investigated. The series of linear models of the dependence of the gross value added on the natural indicators of the output of products was built for 2000–2018. The relative contribution of wood-based panels in the gross value added was shown to be almost twice as high as the contribution of sawn wood, but the volume of veneer sheet production is not statistically significant. The export orientation and import dependence by individual types of products were used to confirm the specialization in the export and import of products of the woodworking industry among the countries, considered in the study, and indicate of degree of circular economy in the industry. Three scenarios were built for the development woodworking industry in Ukraine about substitution of imports, development for domestic consumption, and expansion of export of different products. It was proved that for the purpose of transitioning to a circular economy and increasing the gross value added, it is advisable to implement a combination of scenarios. The development of the production of wood-based panels makes it possible to approach the standards of the circular economy and causes a significant cumulative effect for the entire economy in the medium-term perspective.