Modeling Our Past, Present, and Future

Models are now integral to understanding and predicting how aquatic systems function and how they are changing. Models are becoming increasing complex as knowledge of environmental drivers, physiological responses, and abiotic and biotic interactions advances. Models are also challenged by many aspects of data availability, being sparse with regard to rates and transfer functions and being overwhelming with regard to data streams from advancing tools, techniques, and instrumentation. This chapter reviews some basic concepts of model types and then explores examples of how models are advancing our ability to predict and understand how harmful algal and other environmental stressors may change in the near and far future. Model development for the eutrophic Chesapeake Bay is highlighted.