Transport Accessibility and Demographic Vibrancy: Evidence from the High-Speed Railways in Italy

The socio-economic implications of high-speed rail (HSR) systems have been widely studied. However, a research gap exists regarding the influence of HSR on changes in demographic composition. This study aims to address this gap by investigating the introduction of HSR and its effects on demographics in Italy. By conducting a fixed effect panel regression analysis, we assess the impact of HSR on demographic indicators in 70 catchment areas based on HSR stations, comparing data from two sample periods, 2008 and 2019, to analyze pre- and post-HSR differences. Our study focuses on five demographic indicators, including population ages, migration patterns, and working-age population, as dependent variables. Additionally, we employ an accessibility index based on travel time to measure the improvements in accessibility resulting from HSR. Preliminary analysis suggests a correlation between HSR and demographic vibrancy indexes, although it may not be sufficient to reverse the current demographic trends.