Transport Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Impacts – A Case Study on Agricultural Transport in Brazil

The disruption of transportation systems caused by natural hazards in one region can have significant consequences on the distribution of agricultural products and their export. In various regions of the world, climate change is expected to increase the likelihood of multiple natural hazards, such as landslides or floods. Being able to model how perturbations to transportation networks affect critical export routes is an important step toward making the system more resilient. Here, we analyze how disruptions to the Brazilian soybeans transportation network would impact export economics. We show that the impact to the Brazilian market can be important, with most of the main routes showing an impact of more than 10% on costs. This in turn can have a significant impact on the worldwide markets. We also show that mitigation measures can and should be taken to adapt to the network weaknesses, especially in the face of climate change.