The Shifting Sands in the Peace Process in South Sudan: Challenges and Prospects for a New Approach

Efforts to bring about a lasting peace in the troubled South Sudan have expanded and contracted over time as new promises for conflict resolution were being made and broken. Despite the collective effort of the UN peacekeeping mission and diplomatic interventions by individual countries, peace has continued to elude South Sudan, while humanitarian crisis characterised by large-scale killings, internal displacement and food shortages continued unabated. Given the apparent reconfiguration and reprioritisation of resources in the post-COVID environment, there is a potential danger of donor fatigue which may exacerbate the conflict and the associated humanitarian crisis. Not only will it embolden the warring factions, but it will reverse the gains made by peacekeeping and diplomatic efforts. This paper analyses the various peace agreements (from 2005 to 2020), involving the protagonists in the North Sudan vs. South Sudan conflict, and then the intra-South Sudan conflict. It further looks at the socio-economic and security impact of the intra-South Sudan conflict, both on its citizens and its neighbours. The role played by the African Union, IGAD, TROIKA and individual countries is further unpacked. It concludes by reviewing the prospects for peace in South Sudan within the context of international reprioritisation in the security arena following the ravages of COVID-19 pandemic, and the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.