Statistical Analysis of Asphalt Pavement Distress Occurrence for Project-Level Maintenance Management of Provincial Highways

Understanding the various types of pavement distress that can affect asphaltic pavements is essential for effective project-level maintenance management. By identifying and analyzing different distress types and their probability of occurrence, road authorities can develop targeted maintenance strategies that address specific issues and prolong the lifespan of pavements while optimizing the maintenance budget. This study aimed to statistically model pavement distress using data from 240 km of provincial highways in Pakistan to understand the progression of crack development with pavement age for hilly and plain terrains. The analyzed distress data, taken in 200-m segments by field survey, include raveling, alligator cracking, potholes, rutting, edge cutting, block crack, patch failure, polished aggregate, slippage, transverse and longitudinal cracking. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the probability of occurrence of the various distress types up to six years after the last pavement rehabilitation in different terrain. The study found that rutting, raveling, alligator, and transverse cracking exhibited the highest probabilities of occurrence as compared to the other distress types, while block cracks, patch failure, and loss of pavements showed very slow deterioration over time.