The Evolution of Family-Related Behaviours in the Western Balkans and Their Impact on Present and Future Family and Population Structures: An Analysis Concerning the Period 1945–2050

Changes in family behaviours like marital and fertilityFertility postponement, increase in the proportion of adults never marring and not experiencing parenthood, the multiplication of living arrangements, the increased frequencies in divorces and the diffusion of extramarital childbearing began in the 1960s in Scandinavia, but are also observed with a great delay in the Balkans. The paper analyzes the evolution of family behaviours (primo-nuptiality, fertilityFertility and divortiality) in eight Balkan countries in comparison with two countries which are regarded as representative and forerunners concerning the new attitudes towards family in the northern and western Europe (SwedenSweden and FranceFrance). The scope of the research is to examine if family patterns are converging, to underline the differences in family outcomes between the Western Balkan countries and notify the influence that the modern family behaviours had and are expected to have in the present and future households and population structures. Additionally, the analyses lead to a typology of family behaviours. The data that were used come from many different sources, like EUROSTAT, the European Demographic Observatory, the United Nations Population Division, the Human Fertility DatabaseHuman Fertility Database and many National Statistical Agencies. The analysis of primo-nuptiality, fertilityFertility and divortiality are performed using the tools and concepts of the French School of Classical Demography. The results show that even though distinct demographic behaviours were observed in the twentieth century (higher mortality, marital and fertility ratesFertility rates, younger populations in the majority of the western Balkan countries than Greece, SwedenSweden and FranceFrance), some behaviours are slowly converging in the twenty-first century. It seems that ageing is a phenomenon that is and will be crucial for the socio-economic development of all of the examined countries. The populations of all the Balkan countriesBalkan countries have started declining between the 1990s and 2020, but this is not the case concerning SwedenSweden and FranceFrance whose population will go on increasing due to fairly high fertility ratesFertility rates since the 1990s, but also positive migration balances. Therefore, except from fertilityFertility and mortality, migration schemes appear to be vital concerning population structures. Marriage is gradually losing its central role concerning family formation, but is still closely connected with the childbearing and cohort replacement in countries like Greece in which extramarital fertilityFertility remains low.