The Demographic Future of Western Balkans: Between Depopulation and Immigration

This paper discusses the perspectives of demographic processes in Western Balkans until 2100 in relation to the different development of socioeconomic conditions. High emigration, as a distinctive demographic feature of the region, was considered from the viewpoint of the human development index. Recent population projectionsProjections by three international agencies served as a framework for the analysis. The projectionsProjections of the United Nations—WPP2022 were taken as a basis for calculating demographic indicators on future changes in the size and composition of the population and labour force of the countries of the Western Balkans. We also built three scenarios of future activity patterns based on data from the Labour Force Survey in order to take into account actual labour force participation. Results show that: (a) depopulation within the next decades will be a very certain feature in this region and (b) international migration could be more important for the total population trend than fertility. There would also be no increase in the economic burden of an ageingAgeing population within the next two decades, while it would be minimal by 2060, even if there was a slight increase of the participation rates. Achieving the current activity pattern of the Swedish population would even reduce the dependency burden across the region by 2040, and in some countries considerably. Reducing emigration and moving towards net immigration should be a long-term strategy for approaching a more favourable future, but increasing activity is probably the most effective policy since it reduces the pressure of non-workers in conditions of a shrinking total population.