Is a Future Upward Trend in Births a Realistic Policy Goal?

When birthBirths decline is discussed in Greece (as well as in most advanced countries) the blame is usually put on low-fertilityLow fertility ratesFertility rates. Since late 1990s, fertility ratesFertility rates in Greece are below low levels (1.5 children per woman); as a consequence, birthsBirths are quasi-steadily declining. Moreover, since 2011 births do not suffice to offset the increasing number of deathsDeaths resulting in negative natural growth rates. Therefore, it is no surprise that, as a remedy to further population declinePopulation decline, policymakers opt for the implementation of measures targeting at encouraging birthsBirths. It is, however, more than certain that for at least a couple of decades, birthsBirths will continue to fall behind deathsDeaths, even if the number of children per woman recovers up to as high as 2.1. Far from being a paradox, this is explained by the size and structure of female population at reproductive agesReproductive ages. Very low-fertilityLow fertility ratesFertility rates during more than three decades have resulted in small cohorts of women currently at reproductive agesReproductive ages. In this paper, we explain why fertility ratesFertility rates and number of birthsNumber of births do not necessarily follow the same trend in the context of low-fertilityLow fertility settings; we present how fertility postponement slowed down the decline in birthBirths rates and suggest what a realist expectation from demographic policies may be.