Methodology for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Transnational Cash Flow on GDP Growth (on the Example of the Russian Federation)

The restrictions imposed by Western countries on the access of the Russian financial system to international clearing systems, if they do not localize the potential of foreign economic activity, then significantly complicate the processes of international trade, especially in terms of the growth of transaction costs. At the same time, an extremely important task is to assess the possible consequences caused by the correction of the movement of transnational cash flows in order to understand the possible risks of the sustainable development of national economic systems. This study is devoted to an overview of the emerging effects generated as a result of changes in the volumes of foreign economic supply chains. In it, within the framework of economic and mathematical modeling of perturbations in the field of correction of cash flows of the external contour, empirical estimates of a possible change in the growth rate of Russia's GDP are implemented.