Monitoring and Forecasting Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Paddy Cultivation

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) are currently mainly caused by rapid physical development and agricultural operations. Sri Lanka, in particular, is significantly reliant on paddy production, as rice is the country’s staple meal. In terms of rice output, the Hambantota district ranks seventh in Sri Lanka. Sooriyawewa, in the Hambantota district, is in the dry zone and is best known for its paddy agriculture. However, due to continued physical development and the growing tendency of planting other commercially viable crops, paddy agriculture in this area has seen a considerable reduction. Consequently, the purpose of this study is to investigate a system for monitoring LULC changes specifically related to paddy cultivation, utilizing Satellite Remote Sensing within a GIS framework. The study aimed to quantify the land use and land cover (LULC) changes specifically related to paddy cultivation in Sooriyawewa over the past four decades, as well as investigate the underlying factors driving these changes. Landsat images spanning from 1980 to 2019 were utilized as the primary data source, with a defined time interval. To classify the land cover in all of the photos and find differences in paddy farming within the area, the Supervised Classification technique was used. Between 1980 and 2019, significant changes in several land cover categories, including paddy, other crops, woods, waterbodies, built-up areas, and bare lands, were noted. According to the LULC changes, there was a decline of −15.50% in paddy fields, while built-up areas and other crops increased by 11.97% and 10.08%, respectively. The fall in paddy farming raises concerns about the country’s ability to satisfy demand, which has serious consequences for Sri Lanka’s food security. Given the current trajectory, competent authorities must consider the findings of this study in decision-making processes, the development of urban growth plans, infrastructure construction and management, land use planning, natural resource conservation, and environmental sustainability promotion. As a result, this study is highly topical and provides vital insights for policymakers and other stakeholders.