Assessing the Growth of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Ecuador’s Transportation Sector: A Technical Analysis of Their Impact on the Energy Matrix

The objective of this document is to analyze the increase in electric vehicles (EV) and hybrid vehicles (HV) in the Ecuadorian vehicle fleet and its impact on the energy matrix until the year 2035. Projections of the increase in EV and HV were generated based on a sales history, using the Regression Learner application provided by the MATLAB software, data curves were obtained that show a perspective of what could happen in the future. The amount of energy that these EVs will require in the year 2035 was calculated, obtaining as a result that there will be no deficit in the supply of electrical energy. Thanks to the projects of the National Integrated System (SNI) that shows that by 2035 the supply of electrical energy will reach 64.109 kWh and 14.808 MW. The data obtained demonstrate the technical feasibility of proceeding with the electrification of the transport sector in Ecuador and progressively disassociating itself from petroleum derivatives.