Fixed Beliefs and Football Fandom: Unraveling the Dynamics of Collective Optimism

Crowds tend to hold false and fixed beliefs regardless of contrary evidence. This tendency characterizes both crowds and individuals. However, by identifying the crowd’s false beliefs, the individual may gain an edge in betting against it. In this chapter, I analyze the optimismOptimism of footballFootball fans, point to the important component of chance and uncertainty in reality, and show that beyond skillSkill and chance, the human social collective is influenced by tricksters who try to gain an edge for themselves. Understanding this complex social dynamic may better help the individual to lean toward less stupidity in his conduct.