Information Thresholds: Navigating Predictive Boundaries

Previously, I explained the importance of identifying patterns and warning signsSigns indicating an approaching tipping pointTipping point. The crowd may blindly follow these patterns as a herdHerd, and the individual seeking her way out of the herdHerd should trust her sensitivity to signals. In this chapter, I discuss several methodological issues. The first is how much information we need to make important decisions and how to avoid the dangerous zone of failed prediction. In this chapter, we will meet with a wise detective, find out what the decomposition of a corpse can teach us about the decay of information, visit the areas where dangerous creatures live, and see how to find our way out of Plato’s cavePlato’s cave of illusions.