Exploring the Spatio-temporal Variability of Climate Extreme Indices Over Tunisia: Observation and Projection Trends

Climate extreme indices represent an interesting tool in monitoring climate change effects on communities and ecosystems. In Tunisia, very few studies of climate extreme indices were assessed. The Inter Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-CMIP5 could help us investigate the future projections of 14 extreme indices across the country based on 11 models, 4 time periods of 30-year time laps, and 2 RCP scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). This study shows that temperature-based indices are expected to increase significantly in the future while precipitation-based extreme indices will decrease with higher variability between Tunisian regions. The analysis of these trends gives us a clear view of the regional changes in temperature and precipitation extreme indices which represent an anticipated step toward strategical planning in order to mitigate the effects of climate change on human, agriculture, and environment.