Grassland Cover Distribution by 2070 Under Climate Change Scenario RCP 8.5 in Burkina Faso

In West Africa, grasslands are subject to degradation due to various pressures, including climate change which is projected to have widespread impacts in the region. The aim of this study was to assess grassland cover change by 2070 under climate change scenario RCP 8.5 in Burkina Faso. Changes in grassland cover were predicted with a fit Random Forest Regression model and projected climate data of CMIP5 used under scenario 8.5. The results showed that overall grassland area will increase by 3.8% in Burkina Faso by 2070. However, spatial discrepancy has been noted. Increasing trend is predicted to occur in the sub-Sahelian (4.8%), north Sudanian (15.8%), and south Sudanian (3.8%) sectors of the country, while decreasing dynamics is expected in the strict Sahelian sector (− 7.6%). This trend of grasslands might probably favor pastoral system in the Sudanian zone, with important migration of livestock from the Sahelian zone. Preventive actions must be developed to face this probable migration that could put pressure and induce land degradation in the Sudanian zone. Our findings can contribute to reduce land degradation in the strict Sahelian sector, and help to set up appropriate climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.