Coastal Vulnerability Analysis of the UAE Coast Due to Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise caused by global warming has a significant socioeconomic impact especially in coastal areas. Sea level rise can lead to flooding of low-lying coastal areas, land and wetland losses, increased coastal erosion, groundwater and soil salinization, and environmental degradation. It is evident that a substantial relationship exists between sea level rise and coastal erosion and that the rate of coastal erosion is about tens to hundreds of times that of the land loss due to sea level rise. Storm surges also increase resulting from the long-term sea level rise, adversely affecting coastal regions. The UAE has a 1300 km long shoreline that runs mainly along the Arabian Gulf and it is the home to several manmade islands, and highly populated coast. These islands, along with the coastal area surrounded by the sea, could be at risk of flooding due to sea level rise. This paper presents the results of a coastal vulnerability study of the UAE coast due to possible significant sea level rise. The study used sea level data collected at five gauges along the coast of Dubai in 2004–2019. This data was combined with coastal slope, coastal geomorphology, erosion rates, and the coastal bathymetry to develop a GIS-based Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) map. The analysis based on the CVI map showed that the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise are those located from the middle of Dubai coast to Umm Al Quwain, and all the way to Ras Al-Khaimah including the coast located on the Gulf of Oman. The results of this study can be used to enhance coastal planning and management processes, which would lead to the protection of coastal property and infrastructures.