Cooperation or Conflict? Two Possible Security Scenarios of Climate Change in the Mediterranean

In geographic terms, climate change is a factor of significant change globally. The Mediterranean is a priority area for adaptation and mitigation. Intense efforts are required on this front. MENA countries are analytical units of particular interest. With some exceptions, most MENA countries present political, economic, and social instability, high rates of poverty and inequality and strong population growth. In addition, many situations of open or dormant conflicts of various kinds could be exacerbated or reactivated by the effects of climate change. Concurrently, the MENA countries adjacent to desert zones or reliant on river deltas are more vulnerable to climate change and are particularly exposed to desertification, aridity, water scarcity, and rising sea levels. This short paper analyses potential security and stability in the region from the perspective of driving socioeconomic and environmental forces under two scenarios: cooperation or conflict. As a result, we point to cooperation as the most potent weapon to tackle socio-environmental deterioration giving the EU an essential role in the future scenario.