Export Potential of the Region: Problems of Estimation, Modeling, and Forecasting

The research aims to compare the cost of production, sale, and export of the two most promising types of products in the region—wheat and meat. Based on this comparison, the authors assess the level of the region’s export potential. The research relies on the methods of econometric modeling and forecasting. The information base for the research includes the data of the official statistical reporting of agricultural organizations of the Stavropol Territory of the Russian Federation for 2010–2020. Application in practices of synthesized econometric models, the authors found probabilistic forecasts of the production, sale, and export the most common agricultural products of the region. Based on the results, key economic regressors affecting the export potential of regional agricultural production have been identified. The practical application of the econometric modeling method made it possible to predict the production, sale, and export of the main export-oriented crop and livestock products of the Stavropol Territory.