Regional Labor Market in the Period of Digital Transformation of a Traditionally Agricultural Region: Assessment and Forecasting of the Conjuncture

The purpose of this study is to determine the main directions for the development of the labor market in a traditionally agrarian region during the period of digital transformation. An additional goal is to forecast the potential of human resources in the region in the long term. The research used methods of extrapolation, modeling, and forecasting. The initial set of data was the official statistical information on the labor market of the Stavropol Territory for 2012–2021. The study made it possible to form forecast models that served as the basis for obtaining scenario forecasts of the number and wages of workers in the regional agricultural market. The models obtained in the study are applied in practice. This use made it possible to determine the trend toward a reduction in the total number of labor resources in the Stavropol Territory and also to identify an increase in average wages and an excess of the proportion of older workers over younger ones. The authors consider the current trend negative for the region’s digital transformation.