Evolution of Historical and Future Precipitations and Temperatures Within Essaouira Basin Under Climate Change Effect

In recent decades, the specter of global warming has loomed large, emerging as a substantial and impending threat to the well-being of the global populace. Within the context of nations particularly susceptible to the repercussions of climate change, Morocco, notably its regions characterized by arid and semi-arid climatic conditions, assumes a prominent position as one of the most exposed to vulnerability. To gain deeper insights into the intricate interplay between climate change and the availability of water resources, a comprehensive approach has been adopted. This approach encompasses a climatological analysis encompassing factors such as rainfall and temperature, alongside an exploration of groundwater levels, salinity, and isotopic methodologies. A meticulous examination of the annual precipitation patterns has been conducted, drawing upon the graphical representation offered by the Nicholson rainfall index. Furthermore, this investigation has employed statistical tools, notably the Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests, to probe the nuances of these climatic shifts. The results that have emerged indicate an overarching negative trend in the basin, signifying a reduction in annual precipitation ranging from 12 to 16% over the span from 1978 to 2015. This decline in the average annual precipitation levels is juxtaposed against a concomitant escalation in temperatures, manifesting as a highly substantial warming effect. Specifically, this warming amounts to 1.2 °C in the downstream segment of the study region and 2.3 °C in its upstream counterpart, a phenomenon that underscores the pronounced continentality of temperature patterns in this geographical area. In light of these findings, there exists a compelling rationale for the inclusion of stringent local and global policies aimed at mitigating the emission of greenhouse gases, fostering the utilization of clean and renewable energy sources, and engendering awareness and education among the populace. These endeavors are of paramount importance, serving to expedite the adoption of adaptive behaviors capable of addressing the challenges posed by a warmer and drier climate. This is particularly pertinent for individuals inhabiting regions characterized by semi-arid, arid, and Saharan climates.