Narrative-Network Dynamics in Tipping Processes Towards Low-Carbon Energy Futures: The Case of Indonesia

Deliberate actions by social networks and their transformative visions can generate the necessary conditions for the emergence of positive tipping points towards sustainability, such as those that create qualitative, structural changes in sustainable development goals. However, there is a need for more empirical research conducted in non-Western countries to assess these complex processes. In this research, we customised Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA) and combined it with participatory narrative analysis, social-ecological network analysis and Q-methodology to capture the transformation processes in social network structures with their guiding visions in two coal- and carbon-intensive regions (CCIRs) of Indonesia: Banten and Bali Province. Our research approach tracked transformation narratives and visions and their associated network dynamics and showed that they could be used as anticipatory social tipping signals (ASTS) in deliberate transformation-oriented tipping point processes. Our study revealed two guiding visions actors use to guide their transformative actions to change the energy system. Those transformations emphasise (i) governance coordination and (ii) socio-economic diversification. We argue that making explicit the presence of and promoting dialogue among different visions towards sustainability can promote new opportunities for mutual learning and transformative strategy building among diverse social networks.