Flood Cause Analysis Using Remote Sensing and Upper-Air Observation Data: Case Study of Jakarta

In the past decades, the flooding in Jakarta has become a huge issue with major floods in 2002, 2007, 2013, 2014, and 2020 causing billions of dollars of direct and indirect economic damage, and huge social upheaval. In this context, case study author Azhari Cempaka undertakes a hazard, exposure and vulnerability analysis to estimate a median increase in flood risk of 183% in 2030 compared to baseline conditions and synthesizes data to present a forward look at risk drivers. The author employs a Damagescanner model to assess the impacts of changes in physical and socioeconomic drivers on flood risk. In addition, the author identifies the ways in which land subsidence and land use change impact the likelihood of flooding disasters and explores the potential benefits of an SMS-based flood early warning system as a high-value hazard reduction measure. From this analysis, it was found that an SMS-based flood early warning system could reduce annual flood risk in Jakarta by US$ 3.5 million (1.9%) under a realistic scenario, and up to US$ 22.6 million (12%) under an optimistic scenario.