Energy Transition: How Solar PV Would Shape the Final Household Electricity Consumption. An Economic Analysis on Sizing, Integration and Risk of Prosumer Energy Systems

The paper explores the potential impact of prosumers on household energy consumption in Europe and at global level until 2030 and provides a centralised summary of their current status. Also, it analyses the official forecasts of international organisations for residential consumption, with a focus on Europe and beyond, and examines the trend of becoming a prosumer and its potential impact on future trends of consumption, production and prices. According to the results, the number of prosumers worldwide is expected to grow rapidly and, by 2030, they could potentially account for a significant share of electricity production (5% in the European Union and 14% globally). Using applied research and statistical analysis, the paper also finds that while the number of prosumers in Europe is expected to continue growing, the rate of growth is impacted by economic incentives. Financial advantages are one of the main drivers of prosumption, followed by environmental and social benefits—and, following on this, prosumers could help reduce carbon emissions and improve energy security, with a high degree of flexibility. Overall, the paper concludes that while the impact of prosumers on household energy consumption may be limited in the short term, the trend towards prosumption could have significant long-term implications for the way in which we consume, produce and pay for energy. It is thus important to carefully monitor and regulate the trend towards prosumption to ensure a smooth transition to a more sustainable energy system.