The Deal and Iran’s Muted Nuclear Status

This chapter focuses on Iran's nuclear status between 2015 and 2018, a period when Iran, the United States, and the other parties to the nuclear deal were fully committed to its implementation. This phase is characterized as a trust-building period, during which the loyalty and adherence of all deal members were particularly significant. Patience was emphasized as a key virtue for both Iran and the other members, as they needed to observe and evaluate each other's compliance with the deal's commitments. During these years, often referred to as the “sunshine” years of the deal, all parties involved honored the rules of the agreement, signaling an optimistic future of increased cooperation. The chapter highlights that Iran's nuclear program was effectively capped and placed under strict surveillance by the IAEA. There were no grounds to suspect Iran of deceiving the international community regarding its nuclear activities. Iran complied with its proliferation commitments and demonstrated its willingness to abide by the terms of the deal. Under the accord, Iran relinquished 97% of its uranium fuel, significantly reducing its capacity to produce nuclear weapons. The country also maintained its stockpile well below the threshold required for the production of a single bomb. Rigorous and regular inspections conducted by the IAEA, as well as the affirmation of compliance by the United States, further validated Iran's adherence to the deal. The chapter emphasizes that Iran's nuclear behavior during this period was directly influenced by the lifting of major Western sanctions that had been imposed for decades. It was expected that the consolidated nuclear deal would pave the way for increased socio-economic and political interactions between Iran and the United States, eventually fostering an environment to resolve their long-standing conflicts. An intriguing aspect explored in this chapter is the recognition of Iran as a latent proliferator, which emerged as a result of the nuclear deal. It probes deeper into the concept of the “life of proliferation” introduced in the previous chapter. The analysis examines Iran's latency status and explores the potential for it to transition from a recognized latent proliferator to an active proliferator. Overall, this chapter provides a detailed account of Iran's nuclear status between 2015 and 2018, highlighting the success of the deal in capping Iran's nuclear program, ensuring strict surveillance, and building trust among the deal members. It also examines the implications of the deal on Iran's status as a latent proliferator and explores the possibilities of its transformation into an active proliferator.