Scholarship on the Ramifications of the Fractured Deal

Chapter four analyzes existing works conducted on the subject of Iran’s nuclear drive. It explores the factors utilized by scholars to understand Iran’s current nuclear ambition. By providing a detailed discussion of these factors and highlighting the significance of previous works, the chapter aims to demonstrate the inadequacies of existing scholarship in comprehending Iran’s renewed nuclear interest. The chapter argues that while previous works have made valuable contributions, and there is a lack of a comprehensive theoretical explanation for Iran’s current nuclear ambition. This gap exists because the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal is a relatively recent development, and thus, the existing scholarship primarily focuses on descriptive analysis of Iran’s nuclear activities. However, it is crucial to understand why the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear agreement has lost its ability to effectively contain Iran’s nuclear program. The decline in Iran’s adherence to the JCPOA and its reluctance to renegotiate a revised JCPOA in the face of the US strategy of “Maximum Pressure” need to be comprehensively explored. Additionally, the chapter identifies a missing element in previous scholarship, namely an explanation of why Iran seemingly disregards its violations of the terms of the nuclear deal. To address these gaps, the current work draws upon previous scholarship on protracted conflict and proliferation interest. It argues that protracted conflict states, including Iran, are more prone to proliferation due to conflict-related reasons. The chapter further argues that the potential proliferator’s interest in nuclear proliferation intensifies when its conflict rival defects or betrays the cooperative arrangement between them. Cooperation often occurs when actors perceive actual or potential conflicts in their policies. Cooperation is therefore a mechanism for managing conflicts, rather than the absence of conflicts. When a cooperative arrangement is fractured, the state of the conflict worsens compared to the pre-conflict management arrangement. In the nuclear realm, the victim state responds with a fierce spill-back policy. Theoretical explanations that address these issues are provided in chapters four, five, and six.