Modelling the Impact of Climatic Parameters on Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in Chhattisgarh State of India

India represents 3% of the global malaria burden; therefore, malaria is a major cause of health concern in India, especially in the remote forested areas of the country. India, with its diverse climatic conditions, provides a sustainable and ideal environment for malaria parasites and their vectors to cause transmission. According to the World Malaria Report of the World Health Organisation (WHO, 2020), there has been a reduction in the count of malaria disease in India by 17.6% in the year 2019 when compared with the year 2018, with less than one annual parasite incidence (API) since 2012. The study includes the use of the VECTRI model whose parameters focus on the life cycles of the key vectors, namely Anopheles and parasite Plasmodium. It is a mathematical and dynamic model that can be used to study and analyse the key factors in terms of population dynamics and weather condition, which play a key role in the occurrence and transmission of malaria disease in Chhattisgarh state of India. The model is calibrated over the region of Chhattisgarh for the time period of 20 years from 2000 to 2019. The results show that transmission along with malaria incidence are seen more in the months from July to September, i.e. in the summer monsoon season, which shows a downfall from October. There has been a decline in the number of malaria cases in the state from 2014 onward, but being among majorly remote forested and mountain range areas of the country, the states show the presence of more mosquito population (vector), infected bite rates and increase in entomological inoculation rate and parasite ratio values. Both rainfall and temperature are key climate drivers of malaria transmission in the state and play a major role in malaria vector development.