Aligning Innovation, Economics, and Decarbonization

In this chapter we explore viable pathways based on market forces that can get us to a desirable energy future by 2040, and which can in turn help us achieve decarbonization goals by 2050. We seek scalable exponential technologies with steep learning curves that simultaneously address economics and decarbonization. We have shown that exponential technologies can move and grow fast for adoption. However, the grid which is the bridge or the glue that connects everything together in this future decarbonized world will be highly challenged to evolve at the required pace. If utilities and regulators do not move quickly and steer the architecture and evolution of a new future grid that has the characteristics we need, it is likely that the exponential technologies will grow in an uncoordinated manner, and we may then have a chaotic scenario. A preferred solution is to tweak the regulations slightly so that regulated utilities and the technology suppliers can work together, using existing grid assets to the extent possible, and augmenting them with additional layers of twenty-first-century clean technologies, so as to ensure a smooth transition to a desirable future energy system. We want to caution against techno-optimism, where we assume that the simple existence of technical capability solves all problems instantly—but we also do not support techno-pessimism, where one feels that change at the scale we want is simply not possible. Just because it is a heavy lift does not mean we cannot do it.