Getting to a Desired Energy Future: Role of Innovation

We have seen that many innovations are progressing furiously, but they also create a challenge of integration with other fast-moving sectors to achieve desired societal outcomes. Our inability to track the possible intersection and convergence of these vectors makes it very difficult to predict what the future will look like, even a short 20 years out. But a few things are becoming clear. Technologies with steep learning rates that are close to economic breakeven, which address global market opportunities, and can move at high velocity, are likely to succeed regardless of the level of opposition from incumbents. We see the level of upheaval and disruption that has been caused by only a few select technologies, where these technologies have shown great potential in terms of solving some of our most pressing problems. But this also raises the question—are there other such high-impact technologies available in research labs today, and if those could have an impact by 2040? With emergence of these fast-moving exponential technologies, the traditional processes of tech transfer may be challenged. Also, who is doing the work needed to accelerate the translation? As we shall see in this chapter, the roles of academia, research labs, and industries have shifted substantially over the last 30–40 years. Industrial corporations have virtually abandoned doing fundamental research and translation. Similarly, utilities do not do active research in the new emerging areas. So, who can fill this major gap? Who is best positioned to commercialize energy innovations for societal impact?