A Proposed Model for Calculate the Number of Mammography Machines for the South-West Area of Mexico

Breast cancer is a global health problem. Mexican statistics show that 28.2% of new cancer cases in women come from the breast, so efforts must be made to control the burden of the disease. Early detection is an essential part of the social programs aimed at female populations at potential risk, and mammography machines are the technology used to perform screening methods. The possible coverage of a region is mainly affected by the available technological resources. This paper presents a proposal model to determine the number of mammography machines required to meet the State’s requirements of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas, as those in which there are municipalities with the highest social backwardness. The socioeconomic and demographic determinants, as well as the screening mammography demand data, were extracted from official Mexican agencies. The model variables were selected from the categories of target population, epidemiological indicators and infrastructure. Under the author’s heuristic assumptions, the analytic hierarchy process produced the weight that led to selecting the final set of variables. The resource allocation principles were used to adapt the Resource Allocation Working Party (RAWP) focus formula from population to equipment to calculate the State Weighted Machines using the mentioned category adjustments. Model results with 2017 and 2020 data showed that, on average, 50% more mammography machines are needed to cover around 46% of the female population 50–64 years old in the studied States. Further study and analysis of the determinants of access to the service and the equipment proposals are necessary.