Does Clove Export Cause Economic Growth in Nigeria?

Using annual data from 1970 to 2019, this study investigated the causal relationships between clove export and economic growth in Nigeria, using econometric techniques to empirically evaluate the hypotheses generated. In this regard, utilizing a systems simultaneous equation, a co-integration analysis was introduced to capture long- and short-run relationships among variables. Ex ante forecasting employing impulse response and variance decomposition simulations, as well as ex post forecasting to evaluate the period under study, were also used in this study. This study looked at causality relationships between series using the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Granger causality technique, which is used in F-/Wald test simulation to investigate short-run causation. Non-oil export trade has a positive and significant relationship with economic growth in its first and second lags, according to empirical findings, but oil exports have a positive and substantial effect on economic growth in its first, second, and third lags. Both oil and non-oil exports influence economic growth, according to the VECM–Granger causality results. A closer examination of the impulse response function reveals that non-oil exports will contribute to economic growth in both the short and long run. Meanwhile, the data point to oil export as an export that can stifle economic growth. Furthermore, data show that non-oil exports have always played a significant role in contributing to economic growth. This study advises that the money supply be expanded since it is beneficial to investors, based on the findings. When it rises, it lowers interest rates and stimulates more investment, resulting in economic growth.