Life Cycle Cost Analysis: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation on Energy Costs in Case Studies for Investments in Natural Gas Infrastructure

Decision makers in companies of the natural gas infrastructure establish their decisions on case studies. The case studies are usually prepared according to life cycle cost analysis in combination with the net present value method. Seven case studies, which were prepared by experts from consulting companies, are examined with regard to the robustness of the results obtained. The case studies investigate different options of compressor units for installation in gas facilities in Germany with the aim of finding the best option. The focus is on the evaluation of energy costs as the main cost driver and their future development. The authors of the case studies have to make assumptions for the future development of energy costs. These assumptions are associated with large uncertainties and are not backed up by risk analyses. Based on the seven case studies from 2001 to 2015 and the knowledge of the actual historical energy costs, it is possible to assess with which uncertainties case studies are associated and how robust the results are. Monte Carlo simulation is used to predict future energy prices. In addition to risk assessment with Monte Carlo simulation, other measures to identify the best option for an investment are proposed.