Calculating the Required Mammography Machines for Breast Cancer Screening in Mexican States with High Incidence Rates: A Proposed Model

Breast cancer is a global health issue, in Mexico it accounts for 28.2% of new cancer cases in women. Early detection through mammography screening is a critical component of social programs aimed at potential high-risk female populations. The availability of mammography machines determines the potential coverage of a region. This paper proposes a model to determine the required number of mammography machines for the States of Colima, Mexico City, Durango, Morelos, and Oaxaca, which had the highest incidence rates for breast cancer in 2019–2021. The time period was chosen for the purpose of analyzing the effect of the pandemic on the burden of disease and the available resource. The model uses socioeconomic and demographic determinants, the screening mammography demand data obtained from official Mexican agencies. The selected model variables are from the target population, epidemiological, and infrastructure categories; this is an adapted model from a previous version applied to the southwest region. Through heuristic assumptions, the analytic hierarchy process is used to select the final set of variables. The Resource Allocation Working Party (RAWP) focus formula is adapted from population to equipment to calculate the Average State Weighted Machines using the selected categories. The findings indicate different scenarios for each State, with enhanced coverage compared to the reported data (an average of 55.71% for Durango, Morelos, and Oaxaca versus 36.21%). The study will continue examining additional regions, the model will be modified to include resource location, further investigation and analysis of factors affecting service’s access and equipment proposals are required.