Load and Loss Estimation in Energy Deficient Polygeneration Utilities

Optimum Load forecasting is an integral part of planning and operation of electric utility. Any positive or negative error at planning stage leads to utility losses. It is hard to reflect impact of all natural, man-made and global effects in models to give the true picture of power demand in future. Electricity demand forecasting techniques may consist of simple trend line extrapolations, statistical regression-based techniques, artificial intelligence based neural networks or fuzzy logic-based techniques and genetic algorithms, vector support machine and long experience based smart expert systems. All the forecasting methods assume continued supply of various types of fuels and generation development over time to meet the projected targets and goals. Sudden wars, attacks on power and energy lifelines, change in global policies, climate changes and out of blue-sky events render even the best predictions useless. If all possible events are considered but they do not happen then the resulting situations affect economic power system operation. Demand forecasting becomes even more difficult in polygeneration deficient utilities where multiple energy resources are used for generation of multiple energy vectors simultaneously. This paper attempts to estimate demand and line losses in energy deficient polygeneration utilities carrying out demand side management. Polygeneration is a sustainable energy concept that simultaneously produces multiple forms of energy, such as electricity, heat, and chemicals, from a single integrated system utilizing various input energies and conversion technologies. Random transition from seven to three or two stages tariffs without equating areas under the curves causes unregistered losses to power and gas utilities.