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  • Randolph H. Pherson,
  • Ole Donner,
  • Oliver Gnad

摘要

This book provides a comprehensive overview of the importance of utilizing Structured Analytic Techniques and Strategic Foresight Analysis in making informed decisions. By exploring Kahneman’s System 1 and System 2 thinking and the biases, heuristics, and intuitive traps that can arise, readers hopefully gained a deeper understanding of the limitations of human reasoning and the value of employing structured techniques in avoiding common cognitive pitfalls. The five families of Structured Analytic Techniques presented in Appendix B offer a rich toolbox for approaching real-life problems, as demonstrated in the three case studies in Chaps. 4 , 5 , and 6 .