Mathematical Modeling in Forecasting the Development of the Construction Industry in the Russian Federation

In the paper, the authors present a method for assessing the pace of development of the construction industry and their forecasting in the Russian Federation, which allows considering factors with different units of measurement. For this purpose, an index analysis of nine indicators was carried out (divided into three blocks: the volume of work and the number of employees; fixed assets and investments in fixed capital; commissioning of buildings and public utilities), an integral indicator was calculated that reflects their changes, and the values of the rate development of the construction industry in the Russian Federation. Then, on the basis of mathematical modeling, a multi-factor mathematical model was developed and verified in real time, with the help of which it is possible to carry out a qualitative prediction of the indicator under study. The analysis of forecasts, at the next stage, makes it possible to substantiate the importance of adjusting certain indicators that have the maximum impact on the process under study. Thus, we obtain a mathematical justification for making a managerial decision in the development of strategies and programs in order to develop the construction industry in the Russian Federation.