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Definitions of Uncertainty (for Decision-Making)

  • Richard J. Arend

摘要

Explains and argues for a set of definitions of uncertainty, definitions structured around decision-making and consistent with famous past definitions and delineations, including Knight and Ellsberg. Explains and argues for other relevant characteristics of uncertainty variants under the umbrella of uncertainty-as-unknown. Elaborates on such characteristics using the antithesis state—of perfect information (and super-rationality). The main message here is that few, if any, books (or articles) have actually analyzed uncertainty-as-unknownness to any depth (other than Knight, F.H. (1921). Risk, uncertainty and profit. Augustus M. Kelley).