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Best Treatments and Approaches to Uncertainty Types (in Decision-Making)

  • Richard J. Arend

摘要

Argues that no general approach to uncertainty exists. Argues that any legitimate approaches must be specific, firstly, to the primary type of uncertainty at the heart of the decision problem. Explains that most of the (especially recently-published) prescriptions for dealing with uncertainty (even when that term is properly defined) are wrong and potentially dangerous. Explains the appropriate treatments for the treatable uncertainties. Describes the approaches that can be used to alter the problem for the untreatable uncertainties. Analyzes the main processing issues for dealing with uncertainty. Explains why and when to add uncertainty to decisions.