Past Failures to Engage with Uncertainty
摘要
Explains why it has taken so long to confront uncertainty in a comprehensive way. Identifies the failures to engage fully with uncertainty. Describes the drivers of those failures in the business of science. Argues that probability-based approaches do not apply to uncertainty. Considers alternatives. Argues that new thinking is required when decisions are non-optimizable, thinking that struggles to get published in (social science/business) academic journals.