Towards Economic Growth Without CO2 Emissions: The Case of Türkiye

This chapter studies the energy situation and the development of CO2 emissions in Türkiye. Türkiye is of interest here, as it has a high economic growth potential, and it is still possible to achieve the growth targets with reduced carbon emissions. Factors that explain the increase in CO2 emissions are derived by undertaking a complete decomposition analysis for Türkiye over the period 1987–2018. The analysis shows, as is common to relatively fast-growing economies, that the main contributor to the rise in CO2 emissions is the expansion of the economy (scale effect). The carbon intensity and the change in composition of the economy, also contribute to the rise in CO2 emissions, but much less. Moreover, the carbon intensity has started to decrease in the 2010–2018 period. The energy intensity of the economy, which is decreasing at an accelerating rate after 2000, is responsible for a significant reduction in CO2 emissions. A regression analysis with the data shows that a process of decoupling both carbon emissions and energy consumption with respect to economic growth has started in Türkiye over the period 1987–2018, indicating both an environmental and an energy Kuznets curve. Hence, economic growth is possible both without environmental degradation in terms of CO2 emissions and without increasing the level of energy consumption.