24 Mathematical Modeling for Emergency Response: Using Models to Inform and Direct Response Priorities and Shape the Research Agenda

Mathematical modeling has become an essential component of planning for and responding to infectious disease outbreaks and other threats. Modeling can provide insights into possible scenarios when there are insufficient data for statistical analysis to produce solid guidance for decision-makers, allowing them to, for example, undertake immediate response for the most likely outcomes and begin contingency planning for worst-case scenarios. Good modeling depends on using experience and well-tested models and bringing in new data as they become available in a continuous process of refinement. Modeling can provide a sense of the interventions needed, the magnitude of required response, and what leadership needs to convey to the health care system and the broader population. An introduction to the main types of models used in infectious disease response follows, along with a summary of how to communicate the results to decision-makers. A worked example allows readers to follow along with the development of a modeling and information process. Modeling cannot produce predictions in the absence of essential data, but it can provide guidance on what could happen, and do so with increasing reliability as more data on the complex interactions between a pathogen and human populations become available.