Impacts of Decadal Droughts on Cattle Populations: Tracking Household Wealth Dynamics, 1982–2011

We monitored trajectories of cattle demography and household wealth for 29 years, involving 162 households across three agroclimatic zones and eight sites. Using the life histories of six families, we tracked shifts in cattle wealth. Droughts had an impact on structural changes in regional and local cattle herds. In 6 out of 29 years, cattle herds collapsed. The rates of herd recovery depended on time intervals between droughts and were linked to climate variability. In 6 out of 12 years, rainfall was below average. The reproductive females disclosed more elasticity between herd collapse and recovery than calves and immatures. At the same time, the populations of mature males consistently remained low—perhaps due to offtakes. During the same period, household wealth shifted from higher to lower ranks. Droughts reduced household wealth, regardless of pre-drought rank. The most volatile wealth ranks were the wealthy, the very rich, and the rich households; these categories of wealth ranks disappeared during droughts. Individual households shifted between wealth ranks in response to droughts—some declining from wealthy to stockless, while others shifted to the poor and very poor ranks. About 24 percent of the households became stockless—meaning they were at risk of dropping out of pastoralism. The evidence suggests increasing poverty among the Obbu Borana agropastoralists.