POWOP: Weather-Based Power Outage Prediction

The worldwide energy-crisis poses a critical risk to the energy-intensive process industry. Rising costs for gas lead to increased usage of electrical power (e.g. for heating) that network operators are not prepared for. Weather-dependent energy-sources (e.g. windparks, solar panels) lead to additional fluctuations within the power grid. In worst case a simultaneous and prolonged loss of gas supply and electricity will lead to network bottlenecks, or complete network shutdowns—blackouts. For manufacturers, power outages thereby lead to severe consequences (i.e. waste, broken machines, additional costs), with only limited options to prevent them. Within this paper we highlight the implementation of POWOP, a weather-based service for POWer Outage Prediction that increases the resilience within the German process industry (e.g. paper, glass or chemical production). By using a predictive analytics forecasting model and a knowledge graph consisting of semantically enhanced Scenario Patterns, we are able to predict regional power outages for the next 7 days and to provide action recommendations for potential actors. Our publicly available web-application was evaluated for 15 locations of paper manufacturers in the German region Bavaria and will be demonstrated within a screencast.