Strategy for Modeling Complex Urban Underground Environments Based on the Methodologies of Foresight and Cognitive Modeling

The strategy of urban environments underground construction modeling based on the mathematical support of foresight methodology with the aim of scenarios alternatives creating and cognitive modeling to build scenarios for the development of the desired future and ways of their implementation is proposed. These methodologies are suggested to be used together: the obtained results at the stage of the foresight methodology are used as initial data for cognitive modeling. Using the foresight process at the first stage of modeling allows to identify critical technologies and build alternative scenarios with quantitative characteristics applying expert assessment procedures. For the justified implementation of a particular scenario, cognitive modeling is used, which allows building causal relationships considering a large number of interconnections and interdependencies. The proposed strategy for the development of complex hierarchical systems based on the synthesis of methodologies foresight and cognitive modeling allows to build a science-based strategy to implement priority alternative scenario of complex systems of different natures and offers a unique opportunity within a single software and analytical complex to solve problems of strategic modeling and operational response. The suggested strategy is applied to the study of underground and underwater communications in order to select reasonable scenarios for justification of their creation priority.