Geopolitics in the Caribbean: Changing Waters

Broadly defined the Caribbean encompassed the island chains of the Lesser and Greater Antilles, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guyenne on the South American mainland facing the Atlantic, the Dutch islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao that are north of Venezuela, and Belize in Central America. This set of countries share much in terms of being small states, cultural overlap, and similar colonial experiences. In the twenty-first century, there is a mix of traditional nation-state geopolitics being played out as well as new challenges concentrated around three major narratives. These are the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables, climate change, and new Cold War rivalry between the United States and China. Moreover, there are interrelated issues of failed (Haiti) and weak states (Cuba) in the Caribbean, transnational crime, and healthcare diplomacy. The major power in the Caribbean is the United States, which had faded as a concern in the post-Cold War era and is now more engaged in the region, especially since China has proved to be an adept player in economic statecraft, while Russia has renewed ties with a number of countries and new actors, Iran and Turkey, have reached out to the region in largely economic ways. Caribbean geopolitics have changed considerably since the end of the Cold War, and the first half of the twenty-first century is likely to be highly challenging reflecting upheaval in the global political and economic system.