The European Union Discovers Geopolitics

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine structurally changed the geopolitical situation on the European continent, turning Ukraine into a border state of the Western security architecture. The European Union reacted by according it candidate status for membership. The geopolitical ramifications of the war range much further, however, as Russia is outflanking the EU and NATO toward the south, building a presence from the Mediterranean and the Gulf to Central Africa. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, however, Russian influence may be waning. Meanwhile, Russia has become even more dependent on China, which refrains from actively supporting its war effort. This is evidence of a multipolar world: Each of the great powers prioritizes its national interests, while other states increasingly are hedging. In that context, the EU must base its strategy on more explicit geopolitical analysis.