The Risk of Marine Submersion Along the Ain Sbâa Coastline with a Maximum Tide and Pessimiste Scenario of Sea Level Rise (Atlantic, Morocco)

This work employs a technique based on spatiotemporal projection onto a digital elevation model (DEM) to establish the geographical extent of exceptional sea levels. This makes it easier to study their influence. Using IPCC forecasts, maximum and extreme sea levels were computed for present and future (2100) time circumstances (RCP8.5). The characterization of the tidal components (astronomical amplitude and surge), the computation of the runup, and their statistical modeling according to the generalized extreme value theory (GEV) are all used in the calculation of these levels. The physical qualities of the shoreline are also taken into account while estimating the runup parameter (in particular the variation of beach slopes). The findings reveal that Ain Sbâa's shoreline is poorly protected from coastal flooding during powerful storms. The vulnerable areas are located near the industrial sector. The extension of potentially floodable areas would include areas of 10.9 km2 and 12 km2, respectively, with a maximum continental width of submersion between 1114 and 1225 m, according to projections of sea levels for present temporal circumstances and at the horizon of 2100. The static flood mapping methodology utilized in this “bathtub” has a number of flaws, including failing to account for the flows and time required to overflow the zones identified here as sensitive to flooding danger, but is widely used for coastal hazard maps. The highest values of the runup, the astrometric tide, the storm surge, and the sea level rise (SLR) are used in this approach's computations, with the chance of their coincidences remaining extremely low. This coincidence, though, is still imaginable.