Post Brexit Trade and Investment and the Implications for Scottish Businesses: Some Reflections

This paper considers the implications of Brexit, particularly for Scottish businesses. Incorporating evidence from academic papers, UK and Scottish data sources, and various business surveys, this paper reflects on the impact Brexit has had on exporting, importing and investment—key drivers of economic growth. Exporting levels fell in the immediate aftermath of ‘Brexit Day’ and then appeared to recover within 6 months. However, evidence suggests that sales to the EU remain lower than that if the UK was still a member and the variety of goods exported has fallen. It is likely that Brexit did have an initial effect on importing, and although having now returned to a more normal situation, the composition has changed with more imports now coming from the rest of the world relative to the EU. As for inward investment, evidence shows little impact for Scotland as it remains a desirable investment destination.